F OR MUCH of humanity the new year is a time for reflection on the past. But many minds will also inevitably cast forward. If the fitful past two years of the covid-19 pandemic offer any lesson, it is that the future remains murky and uncertain.
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Not to be deterred, we have turned to prediction markets to give us a glimpse of 2022. Pooling data from punters on exchanges like Betfair, Metaculus, PredictIt and Smarkets, can offer a theoretically better guide to the future than plunging headlong into the unknown. Will the pandemic claim millions more? Might Russia invade Ukraine? Could America’s high inflation persist? And will Tom Brady win an obscene eighth Super Bowl? Another eventful year awaits. ■
Sources: Betfair; Metaculus; PredictIt; Smarkets
Picture credit: Disney/Getty Images
This article appeared in the Graphic detail section of the print edition under the headline “Dollar divination”